Russia’s Economy 2026 – Changing Existing Paradigms as a Necessary Condition for Achieving National Development Goals in the Long Term

The relevance of the work is due to the need to identify and comprehensively analyze the main reasons for the currently observed slowdown in the growth rate of Russia’s economy, which increase the risks of its transition to a sustainable fragmentary development model and the onset of recession. The purpose of the study is to conduct a retrospective analysis of the development process of the modern Russian economy, identify and classify the determining factors that define the dynamics and prospects for national GDP growth, as well as develop a set of systemic measures to ensure the achievement of declared national development goals.
The paper proves the initial structural limitations of the existing economic model, formed under the significant influence of the globalist concept of the world order and not fully meeting the national interests of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the authors substantiate the thesis about the need to abandon externally imposed development paradigms and transition to a form of economic activity based on its own socio-economic potential, which allows maintaining economic stability and minimizing the costs of high turbulence in the geo-economic environment.
The scientific novelty of the research lies in the analysis of indicators of Russian GDP growth dynamics, identification and classification of current determining factors hindering economic development, and development of a strategy to counter potential threats arising from a highly turbulent operating environment, which will contribute to the theoretical and methodological base of scientific research in this field.
The practical significance of the work lies in providing public authorities and Russian economic entities with the opportunity, based on the obtained analytical data and developed recommendations, to adjust existing programs and update development strategies in order to enhance their competitiveness and economic security.

1. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable // The New York Times, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. 2007. April 22. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1sttale.html

2. Талеб Н., Гольдштейн Д., Шпицнагель М. Шесть ошибок руководителей компаний при управлении рисками // Управление рисками. Harvard Business Review. М.: Изд-во«Альпина», 2022. С. 41–50.

3. Статистика // Федеральная служба государственной статистики. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistic

4. Обзор финансовой стабильности // Центральный Банк РФ. URL: https://cbr.ru/finstab/review/

5. Эксперты: России необходим рост ВВП не ниже 3,5% в год. URL: https://journal.sovcombank.ru/news/eksperti-rasskazali-kak-obespechit-stabilniirost-vvp-rossii-na-3-5-

6. Итоги года с Владимиром Путиным // Сайт Президента России. URL: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78815

7. Шлычков В.В., Нестулаева Д.Р. Санкционный прессинг и турбулентность глобальной экономики как ключевые внешние угрозы экономической безопасности России в 2025 г. // Вестник Сибирского института бизнеса и информационных технологий. 2025. Т. 14. № 4. С. 137–142.

8. Кови С.Р. Восьмой навык. М.: Изд-во«Альпина», 2018. 408 с.

9. Збигнев Б. Великая шахматная доска / Пер. с англ. О. Уральской. М.: Изд-во АСТ, 2023. 384 с.

10. Харари Ю.Н. 21 урок для ХХI века. Изд-во «Синдбад», 2020. 416 с.

11. Цитаты о финансах и бюджете от Мицкевича. URL: https://www.inesnet.ru/article/citaty-ofinansax-i-byudzhete-ot-mickevicha/

12. Абалкин Л. Роль государства в становлении и регулировании рыночной экономики // Вопросы экономики. 1997. № 6. С. 4–12.

13. Rodrik, D. Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science. New York / London, W.W.Norton & Company. 2015. 162 р.

14. Шлычков В.В. Геоэкономическая турбулентность как источник внешних угроз экономической безопасности России в 2025 г. // Вестник экономики, права и социологии. 2025. № 3. С. 138–143. DOI: 10.24412/1998-5533-2025-3-138-143