Assessment of the Impact of the Dynamics and Volume of Public Debt on Economic Growth in the EAEU Countries

The relevance of the work is due to the expansion of the role of integration associations in the global economic space. Global economic, financial and geopolitical crises have led to a rethinking of the role of the state in regulating socio-economic processes. The article analyzes the impact of public debt on economic growth in the EAEU countries using data for a 23-year period (2000-2022). The indicator of public debt is estimated through the gross debt of the public administration sector, the real growth rate of GDP per capita was used for economic growth. The linear regression parameters were estimated using the least squares method. The methodological basis of the study is based on the correlation and regression analysis of time data for the EAEU countries. The results of the study show that the increase in public debt is inversely related to economic growth, the calculated coefficients of public debt were negative, while the scale of the negative impact on economic growth varied. The influence of other factors determining economic growth through a set of control variables revealed a positive and statistically significant impact of investments in all countries in the period 2000-2022. When implementing a fiscal stimulus policy, the free fiscal space can ensure an increase in public investment. Given these findings, monitoring the level of public debt and increasing investments to support economic growth are of great importance. The directions of further research are related to taking into account the fiscal space in forecasting economic growth.

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