Problems of Goal Setting and Assessment of Tax Expenditures in the Medium Term

The relevance of accounting and estimating lost budget revenues related to tax incentives is due to the integration of conceptual provisions on tax expenditures into the public finance management system of most countries. As a shortfall in budget revenues, tax expenditures should contribute to the emergence of positive socio-economic effects and returns in the medium and long term.
The purpose of the study is to identify the problems of assessing tax expenditures and the risks of changes in their volume in the medium term based on a systematic analysis. The objectives of the study were solved by dividing tax expenditures into groups according to resource and program criteria, identifying deviations in the process of analyzing the structure, dynamics, and forecast of tax expenditures in the period 2021-2027. The information and analytical base of the study consisted of the provisions of documents on tax expense management, forward-looking documents, information systems, official websites of international organizations and authorities. The scientific significance of the study lies in the proposed classification approach. The practical significance includes the directions of implementing the program principles and fine-tuning the tax expense management mechanism through the development of the information system.
The study revealed the economic and fiscal risks of changes in the volume of shortfall in budget revenues. Economic risks are associated with a slowdown in global economic dynamics and an increase in the production of export raw materials by oil exporting countries. Fiscal risks are primarily associated with an increase in the corporate income tax rate. It is highly likely that an increase in the tax burden will lead to an expansion of indirect measures of state support for economic entities through tax mechanisms. Among the internal factors is the need to implement program and project documents in conditions of a deficit in the federal budget and high interest rates that limit the use of government borrowing.

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